In Bihar, the decision to officially lose and win will be made on November 10, when the results of the assembly elections will come, but in this cut-throat competition – Nitish Kumar is going to become the chief minister again for the fifth time. This could be a shared beneficial result of his alliance with the BJP and the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The opposition coalition, which has declared 30-year-old Tejashwi Yadav as its chief ministerial face and includes Congress and Left parties, has little attraction. And if, until three weeks ago, the election seemed like a bargain, then 36-year-old Chirag Paswan has now given it a lot of edge.

Last week, he sparked a revolt against Nitish Kumar and the BJP, declaring that he would no longer be part of the NDA alliance in Bihar. His stance has given more credence to the theory that he is a six-foot long secret missile of BJP against Nitish Kumar. Chirag Paswan announced that his party will not field candidates against LJP, BJP and their full emphasis will be on defeating JDU candidates. Chirag Paswan will burglarize Nitish’s vote bank. In such a situation, the BJP will win the maximum number of seats in the state and it will have the ability to decide that it should stick to its commitment to return Nitish Kumar for the post of Chief Minister.

However, people of Bihar BJP are rejecting these things completely. But no one is able to say that Chirag Paswan is not part of a team associated with BJP. After announcing Chirag Paswan’s policy of ‘Ekla Chalo Re’, from Saturday till today, not a single BJP leader has made any tweet in support and defense of Nitish Kumar. Chirag Paswan’s statement of condemnation against criticism of the Nitish government’s rule also came 50 hours later from the BJP.

On Monday, hours before Nitish Kumar and the BJP addressed a joint press conference on the issue of seat-sharing announcement, BJP leaders who had come to meet him at the Chief Minister’s residence had found that Nitish was upset and perhaps at the press conference Can not join He was again assured that no matter what the election results are, if the team wins despite uneven seats, Nitish Kumar will be the chief minister. After this the storm was averted. Then there was a press conference but it was delayed due to hurt feelings.

Bihar BJP leaders have privately indicated that it is Chirag Paswan who has been instigated by electoral strategist Prashant Kishor to take such steps. Prashant Kishore remained a trusted associate of Nitish Kumar, who had the status of a cabinet minister, for years. But ten months ago, he was discharged from his party for criticizing Nitish’s statement as anti-Muslim in support of the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act.

BJP sources say that Chirag Paswan’s election slogan and advertisement bears a distinctive impression of Prashant Kishore, but sources close to the young politician say that he has not met the electoral strategist for over two years and that it is Chirag Paswan’s attack on Nitish Kumar There is a convenient way for the BJP to prove itself innocent in the attack.

In the last three months, the relationship between Nitish Kumar and the BJP has not come under the definition of confidant. The 69-year-old chief minister, during a lengthy conversation with the BJP, realized how many seats should be given to him so that he clearly had control and share of power.

Nitish Kumar’s attitude towards allies and alliances has been like getting on the bus. He broke an 18-year alliance with the BJP in 2015. After this, he formed an electoral alliance with Lalu Yadav and Congress. Sources in his team point to the fact that he had two consecutive press conferences on seat-sharing and the list of candidates with an irritable leader like Lalu Yadav. In 2017, Nitish Kumar again retaliated and joined the BJP. Even during the Lok Sabha elections last year, he repeated the same pattern of 2015 – when seat sharing and candidates’ names were announced after two joint press conferences. This time the JDU, taking a step forward, announced the names of the JDU candidates on Wednesday, before the BJP finalized the names of the candidates. This moment of happiness for the NDA family could not be revealed.

If Nitish Kumar has something to make relaxed, perceived or real, then the arithmetic and social chemistry of his alliance with the BJP remains intact on the ground. They may have a new B-team to hand over to Chirag Paswan, but this is not a real threat. The Paswan caste has only five percent of the vote bank. This community will vote for Chirag Paswan, but the non-Paswan Dalit vote, which Nitish has given the status of Mahadalit category, has a vote share of 11 percent. It is believed that the vote of this category will go to the account of Nitish and BJP (Paswan is a strong caste among Dalits, while the rest are backward). BJP will also woo upper caste voters. Other backward castes like Kurmi (caste of Nitish Kumar), except Yadavs (who have been core voters and supporters of Lalu Yadav), Voters of Koeri-Kushwaha and other backward castes (which include more than 40 castes) can vote for Nitish Kumar and BJP. Lalu Yadav’s supporter community constitutes about 35 percent of the population. Once, these supporters of Lalu Yadav had pledged their loyalty to Nitish Kumar when he had empowered them by introducing reservations for them in gram panchayats and other grassroots bodies.

On the other hand, Tejashwi Yadav and Congress are working to reorganize the small sections of Muslims, upper castes and Yadavs.

Nitish Kumar had criticized the migrant laborers of Bihar who had returned home at the time of lockdown; His government’s deep flaws in dealing with the coronovirus crisis were also exposed; And when the flood came again as calamity in the state, then he was seen as a helpless administrator. But party workers have given him feedback that he is still popular and his electoral arithmetic is strong because there is no alternative in front. Ever since Lalu Yadav was hospitalized in Ranchi (he was blamed for corruption in 2018 and later taken to the hospital), his team has been feeling the absence of his smartest and most charismatic player. This is the first assembly election after 1980, where Lalu Yadav will not campaign.

Nitish Kumar has transferred more than 12000 crore rupees in the last six months to the account of the poor of the state through direct cash transfer. Families were also paid in advance for buying bicycles, school uniforms and scholarships. In the lockdown, after the closure of the school, mid-day meal amount was also given to them so that children could not be deprived of the benefits of this scheme.

All this can help stop the anger of the voter. And then there is a huge benefit of PM Modi, whose popularity is at the top. So while Chirag Paswan will be working in public and Nitish Kumar in private, it will still be the BJP whose beats will be fast. For the first time, BJP is contesting on almost equal seats with Nitish Kumar, which proves the increasing dominance in his system.

 

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