If nothing unexpected happens, the agreement between the US and Taliban representatives in Doha (Qatar) today could become historic. In the agreement, the Taliban will assure the US that they will not support any international terrorist groups (such as al-Qaeda, IS) in Afghanistan, while the US will set a deadline for the return of its troops present in Afghanistan. It is not yet clear whether the US will withdraw its entire army or leave a few thousand soldiers there to help the Afghan government to take a front against terrorism. The Taliban had, of course, announced that they would not tolerate any foreign troops in Afghanistan, but experts believe that the Taliban might also agree on the secret presence of some American troops, so that it would be easier to counter Tanzim like IS. Go

Negotiations between the Taliban and other political classes of the Afghan government and the country are expected to take place soon after this agreement, which will discuss the peace and political future of Afghanistan. Since there is a big difference in the thinking of the two sides, this dialogue will face basic hurdles. However, the big question is whether the Taliban will be ready to completely abandon the path of violence in the coming months? It is difficult to say right now, but they may agree to reduce violence. It is also expected that the US Defense Minister and NATO Secretary General will announce in Kabul today that Afghanistan will continue to receive assistance from Western countries in the coming years, in particular they will continue to support the Afghan army. A string of events also connects to the US presidential election, In which Donald Trump will be in a position to declare that he fulfilled the promise of ending the Afghan war and made his troops return to their homeland. But the question will remain whether today’s developments will restore peace in Afghanistan?

Afghanistan has been unstable for more than four decades. Ever since King Zaheer Shah was overthrown by his cousin Dawood Khan in 1973, the country has been in a turbulent situation. Five years later in 1978, Zaheer Shah and his family were killed by leftist leaders, which made the Soviet Union active and sent its troops to Afghanistan on 25 December 1979. The Soviet Union believed that leftist leaders would strengthen their hold in Afghanistan, but the Afghans rejected foreign intervention. That was the era of the Cold War, so the US, seeing the opportunity, decided to avenge its defeat in Vietnam with the Soviet Union. He helped jihadi groups through Pakistan with the help of his allies like Saudi Arabia and forced the Soviet army to kneel. China also secretly supported him in this.

The Soviet Union had to withdraw its troops in 1989, and in 1992 the Mujahideen factions entered Pakistan from Afghanistan. The Taliban captured Kabul in 1996 with the help of Pakistan. In the next five years, not only did they make the country dilapidated, but groups like al-Qaeda led by Osama bin Laden also made it there. The 9/11 attack was carried out by al-Qaeda, in response to which the US attacked Afghanistan and in November 2001, Taliban and al-Qaeda commanders had to flee and take refuge in Pakistan.

In this way, today’s agreement is a sign of America’s defeat strategically. In the last 18 years, the Taliban and their supporting country, Pakistan, has done the teeth of America in Afghanistan. America was defeated because it fought only defensive battles with the Taliban. The White House could not finish the Pakistan-based Taliban’s hideout. It is also necessary to see here whether there have been some changes in the Taliban over the years and will the political class of Afghanistan be able to remain united? A few days ago, the Election Commission of Afghanistan declared Ashraf Ghani victorious in the September election, but his opponent Abdullah Abdullah and his comrades did not accept this result. Therefore, if the Afghan political class is not able to remain one, then the Taliban can take advantage of it. There is also the fear that the Afghan army will not be disbanded like the 1990s due to political differences? If something like this happened,

A stable Afghanistan is essential for the stability of the entire Asia region. But the purpose of Pakistan has been to form a government in Kabul that works under it. The leaders and people of Afghanistan want to remain independent. In such a situation, it has to be seen what attitude the Taliban takes? Yes, whenever the Taliban have informal talks with Indians, they insisted that they are not Pakistan’s puppets. Today the Ambassador of India will also be present in Doha at the time of the agreement. New Delhi has not yet formally negotiated with the Taliban. But this has been our wrong policy. Time is right for us to talk to the Taliban, leaving the old reluctance. This does not mean that we have agreed to their principles.

India is respected in Afghanistan, because we never interfered in its internal affairs. This policy should be maintained. In order to safeguard our interests, it is necessary that our relations with the Afghan government as well as all political units remain strong. For this, we will have to continue all the help being given to Afghanistan, including the strategic sector. If today’s developments restore peace in Afghanistan, our interests will benefit despite Pakistan’s reluctance. Islamabad can hardly make Taliban fighters against us. Still, we have to be careful.

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