This is a challenging time for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Many state governments and most analysts want the lockdown period to be extended, as new cases are constantly coming up. Now the infection has started spreading in those areas which were left from Corona. It is true that the rate of doubling of infected patients due to high numbers or baseline of data is more than 11 days, but new cases will continue to come in the coming days. But at the same time, the issue of livelihood of more than 400 million people is also in front of us. The way people have lost their income has increased the risk of many families reverting below the poverty line. 
About 65 percent of the Indian economy is in the unorganized sector. The difficulty with that is that more than 90 percent of the labor force is temporary, which has limited welfare rights. If Jan-Dhan Yojana (cash transfer, benefiting 35 crore population like farmers, rural laborers, poor pensioners, construction-laborers, poor widows) and Ayushman Bharat (40% of the country’s population free up to five lakh rupees If medical programs) were not run, India would have been facing a terrible situation today. Since we do not have a system like Universal Basic Income (Minimum Monthly Income) or unemployment benefit, the income of the population with weak economic condition must be ensured soon, and for this it is very necessary to revive the economy.
Now the big question before the Prime Minister is that how to open the lockdown without endangering the lives of millions of Indians? My co-author Morris Kugler has designed six options for America. If we want, we can apply them in India as well. 
The safest way to control this epidemic is to continue the lockdown until the vaccine develops and then everyone is protected by vaccination. Second, the relaxation of lockdown should be given gradually and by the time this epidemic curve is in a flat position, both its health and economic trade balance will fall into the mid-range. The third option is more stringent than the second, with the possibility of opening more and more lockdowns, but if the rate of infection rises, it is to be reinstalled. The fourth option is to have antibodies tested and those who are not found to be infected in this, be freed from lockdown. Under the fifth option, it has been said to check the entire population once every two weeks. The sixth option is to find people who have come in contact with infected patients and to investigate extensively wherever cases occur.
Talking in terms of India, we cannot adopt the first option, because it may take a long time to get a vaccine. Similarly, due to financial and systemic reasons and lack of adequate number of test kits, we cannot move towards the fourth and fifth options. The problem with the third option is that the health-cost will undoubtedly be lower than the second option, but the economic recovery will be much more dubious and longer. 
Therefore, the only practical way for India may be to make a slight modification and adopt the second option as well as the sixth option. The amendment is that the lockdown should be opened on a large scale, but no security measures should be taken in all the security measures. Since children and the elderly are most susceptible to this virus, there may be an option to keep these age-groups indoors. However this is not possible in India, so determining it geographically may be the right approach. The work has already started with identification of hotspot areas. Similarly, if an infected patient of Kovid-19 is found, it is necessary to examine the common people on a large scale as well as to identify the people who have come in contact with the infected patient. Hotspots have their limitations and we should identify those who are carriers of the virus. Therefore, the use of the Arogya Setu app, and a sufficient number of test kits, The purchase of personal protective equipment (PPE) and ventilators (also from local companies) will have to be expedited. By the way, finding people in contact with an infected patient is not an easy task. Singapore also failed to find 20 per cent of such people. But India also has no other solution.
However, India’s exit from the lockdown will be meaningful only when the government and the Reserve Bank move ahead with extraordinary and non-traditional policies. India should not worry about the fiscal deficit, but rather accelerate structural reforms in agriculture and industry. For example, opening the market under agri-sector and increasing the futures trade, while making it easier for industry to acquire land, encourage hiring, make tax system easier.
Similarly, banks will not be able to give loans even after the Reserve Bank has given monetary policy relief, as NPA means bad loans are very high. In this case, we should learn from the US Federal Reserve, and as it is buying risky corporate bonds, RBI should also form a public sector entity with the government, which will allow micro, small and medium industries to share some of their shares. Take and give capital to reduce your debt. Once the company reopens, the cost can be extracted by selling those shares. By jointly adopting the second and sixth options and moving forward on stricter fiscal and monetary policies, India can avoid the side effects of this epidemic. It is possible that with this measure, our economy can grow on the path of reform by the end of this year.                                   


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here