The woeful condition of our economy in January has worsened in this one month of lockdown. Now the question is to live or die. Understand this, the economy is currently on ventilator, which the ventilator machine needs enough power to keep alive. In terms of economy, electricity means demand and production, that is, our economy will remain dynamic only when the demand situation in the country will remain and production will continue. But could this happen in this one-month detention?
Lockdown is a well-intentioned move. Of course we needed it, so that the increasing infection of the corona virus could be stopped. Since the medical system of our country is weak, we needed time until it was able to fight this virus. We were also successful in this to some extent. The lockdown proved effective in preventing ‘social breakdown’ (massive destruction of life and property). But it could be made better. In fact, 94 percent of the workers in our country belong to the unorganized sector, who earn and eat daily. They do not have enough savings to collect ration for two to three months. Obviously, the basic needs of what is there should have been met right there. Lockdown violations abound when requirements were not met. We have also seen this in the past, how workers from the metros came out of the villages. 
It is not that we cannot meet the needs of workers in the unorganized sector. We have sufficient stocks of food grains and basic essential commodities are also being produced. Therefore, if the administration wishes, the supply of essential commodities can be extended to the needy. A comprehensive public distribution system is needed for this. If the interests of the farmers are also added to this, then the situation will get better. For example, due to the lockdown, the crop from the fields is not reaching the mandis, because the freight is closed. As a result, the farmer is forced to destroy produce like vegetable-fruit in the fields. The administration can buy these crops from the fields and do the public distribution work in the nearby cities. This will bring money to the villages and will increase both demand and production.
The lockdown will be successful only when it is implemented correctly. All kinds of production are still in the country. In agriculture, electricity, gas, etc., some production is being done, but not so much that the country’s economic needs can be met. If seen, only 25 percent of our economy is working now. Analysts are in favor of maintaining the lockdown for at least 10 weeks. In such a situation, even after the Corona period, if we made a fast move, then at the end of this financial year, we will be where we were in January. According to estimates, our production last year was 200 lakh crore rupees, which could be reduced to 120 lakh crore rupees this year. The effect of this will be that our tax collection will fall rapidly, because at the moment only essential commodities will be produced and tax revenues are collected from non-essential commodities. It is evident, GST-collection will also fall by 80–90 per cent. Corporate tax collection will also be almost zero. This will have an impact on income tax and there will be a sharp fall in it, that means it will be difficult for governments to do the necessary work under the budget this year. This situation will also come before the Center and also in front of the states.
Governments have to adopt a non-traditional way to fight it. They have to pay full attention to the restoration of mandatory services. This work will be done only when they reduce their expenses. They will have to cut their regular expenses drastically. The investment has to be stopped for one year. However, the effect will be that new employment opportunities will not arise. But this is a time that would never have been imagined. A state of emergency is considered a war period, but there is also an increase in demand, but there is neither demand nor production nor supply is over. Therefore, the few resources that are left with the governments, they should be used to deliver the required dose to the public. This can be called a ‘survival package’, that is, the provision of the necessary goods to survive. Such measures prove the possibility of social uprising. 
Business interests will also have to be taken care of in this package. Actually, the lockdown is having a very negative impact on the business. Especially small-capital businesses keep their profits in business. The little savings they will have will now be over. Big companies of course have accumulated funds, but if they use it, they will also suffer losses. In particular, the health of financial institutions is expected to be the worst. If any financial institution is submerged, then it will harm other companies because of their interconnectedness. The example of Lehman Brothers is before us. The condition of real estate also does not seem to improve at the moment. This will have a huge impact on investment. The problem is that these are the areas where the demand will not increase immediately even after the relaxation of lockdown. Therefore, making industries dynamic again will be a challenging task for governments. 
Clearly, the demand for products other than essential commodities hardly increases. People’s mindset has changed. They are now focusing more on savings. Since most of the total investment (about 95 per cent) is domestic investment and the government will have less resources, so it should use its resources to understand the reality. The government will have to spend in such a way that production increases and the demand situation also arises. Will this happen?


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