Two budgets were presented last year. An interim budget was presented in February, followed by Lok Sabha elections in the country and in July, the Modi government presented its budget once again. There was a difference of six months between the two budgets, but in these six months the figures showed a change. There was a difference of one lakh, 80 thousand crore rupees between the income and expenditure of the government. In such a short time, the government has revealed this big difference in the budget with its figures. Were the figures of income and expenditure given in the interim budget were correct or the figures with full budget were correct? It was a matter of thinking in itself that how was there such a big flaw in the figures? A month after the presentation of the entire budget, we also saw that the additional money the central government received from the Reserve Bank of India was almost the same. The central government had less money to spend, then the Reserve Bank had given Rs 1.76 lakh crore.
The government itself had high expectations from the previous budget, but the truth of today is that we are going through a period of economic crisis. The world’s large economic institutions have also indicated this. Big economic experts of the country are also saying that we are going through an economic downturn. The central government, through its budget last year, did not think that the economy would improve. The pace at which GDP or GDP was expected to grow has not been met. While on one hand, we could not achieve the target of GDP, on the other hand, now inflation has also started increasing. The last budget has not helped the Indian economy much, the government figures themselves are witness to this.
According to government figures, the GDP growth rate has reached around 4.5 percent, but the credibility of this figure is questioned, even the good experts of the economy are pointing at it. Krishnamurthy Subramanian, who was the Chief Economic Advisor in the previous government, prepared a study paper, in which he said that the government is reporting GDP growth rate of two and a half percent. This means that our economy is growing at a growth rate of two percent. Another economist Arun Kumar says that the GDP growth rate is not so much. The unorganized sector, which includes agriculture, has a growth rate of close to half a percent. Overall, many economic experts point out that the growth rate figures have been shown to increase.
The negative impact on the economy due to big steps like demonetisation and then GST has not been reversed. The impact of these big steps is still visible on the economy. The difference in production and demand in India today is astonishing. For the first time in the history of India, companies have reduced power generation, diesel consumption has also decreased. When does this happen? Consumption of electricity and diesel should have increased to speed up development, but how is it decreasing? In the past, the exemption given in corporate income tax will also increase the deficit. You do not have money today. The government also has no money. There seems to be a readiness to sell the property. Though there was talk of disinvestment in the last budget too, there was no major success. Now Air India and Bharat Petroleum are on sale.
Today the government does not have money for MNREGA, how will it be spent on Ujjwala and Village Roads Scheme? How will spending increase for Jan Dhan Yojana and Swachh Bharat? Talking about the future, the government will have to increase the fiscal deficit. This is the only way. The government will probably do so, but its burden will fall on the government undertakings. The pressure will increase on government institutions and undertakings associated with government schemes. Investment was expected to increase in the previous budget, but this did not happen. Government figures show that banks are in trouble due to debt. Not giving loan. Many private sector investment schemes have gone into cold storage. Non-banking companies are drowning.
On the buy-sell front, the demand is not increasing. There is also a shortage of money to buy biscuits to toothpaste. People do not have money to buy vehicles. Since the last budget, people are thinking that they wait now, will buy later, do not know what will happen? Obviously, overall buying and selling will decrease, so how will GDP expand? The government should realize that resentment has started emerging among the youth. There are about 65 crore youth in a country of 135 crore people, how is their future? Was there ever so much unemployment?
Last time, the government had said that the income of the farmers would be doubled. Talking about Pradhan Mantri Kisan Yojana, only about 7.5 crore farmers are getting benefit from the target. Now again the budget will be presented, there will be claims, publicity will be done, efforts will also be made to declare themselves successful. There are some schemes, which will be told about every house, tap water etc.
In fact, through the budget, the government should also work on increasing its credibility. The government should make up its mind to increase its fiscal deficit. There is a need to do something special for rural youth. Give employment Instead of keeping some corporates happy, try to keep the youth happy. The government should keep in mind, since the last general budget, the politics of the ruling party has also weakened in various states. Power is lost in an important commercial state like Maharashtra. The situation is worse today than in the previous recession, because then the number of youth was not so much. Today unemployment is becoming a big problem in the country of youth. It is important that the government also realizes this big deficiency.